We talked with Jim Rogers, legendary commodities trader, who picked the bottom of the commodities bull market in 1999. Bestselling author, biker capitalist and widely followed, Jim Rogers talks about what he's now investing in.
Laptop Battery StockInterview: You began investing heavily in commodities, at very close to the bottom of the cycle. What led you to believe the commodities boom would begin in 1999?
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Thinkpad Jim Rogers: I could see that nobody had been investing in productive capacity in crude (oil) specifically. For instance, there had been virtually no offshore drilling rigs built since 1981. There had been virtually no offshore tugboats built to service the offshore rigs since 1981. In the 1970s there were dozens of them built every year. I could see that people had cut back their exploration budgets enormously. It was pretty clear that nobody had been investing for fifteen or twenty year, in looking for new (oil) fields. There hadn't been any gigantic fields discovered since the 1960s. It was clear the world reserves were running down. That had to lead to a bull market. It so happens that I got almost the exact bottom. I'm not a very good market timer or trader, but I got within a few weeks of the absolute bottom to my surprise. Then you extend that to nearly everything else, whether zinc mines or lead mines or wheat production or anything else, and you have the ingredients for a new bull market.
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Microsoft StockInterview: Will the recent Central Bank rising interest policy, which is intended to deflate the commodities bull market, fail?
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Laptop Computers Jim Rogers: Well, yes. They may cause recessions, and they probably will. We've often had recessions. That will affect some commodities markets. But in the 1970s, we had horrible economic conditions everywhere in the world, or nearly everywhere in the world. That did not prevent one of the great bull markets of all time in commodities because supply was going down faster than demand. Remember that these markets are made up of supply and demand. If the supply goes down faster than demand goes down, you still have a bull market. There will be setbacks and consolidations, but that's just the way the world works. All bull markets have corrections, as I have said before.
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Laptop Computer StockInterview: What has convinced you to stay in the commodities bull market for this long?
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Desktop Computer Jim Rogers: Throughout history, bull markets in commodities have lasted a long time. They've averaged about 18 years or 19 years. The shortest I could find was fifteen years; the longest was 23 years. It takes a long time to bring new production on stream for commodities. If you and I decide to go into the lead business today, we've got to go find a lead deposit. Then, we've got to try to raise money. We've got to deal with unions, environmentalists, governments and everybody else. And put in infrastructure. It takes on average about ten years for any new mine to be opened these days, not just in the U.S., but anywhere in the world. So, that's why the bull markets last so long. Eventually, new supplies come to market, and the bull markets have always ended. But, it takes a long, long, long time for that to happen. It's not like bringing in new shares of a dot com or something, where we go into the garage and start a company and next week we sell stock. Mines and oil fields are much different animals.
Notebooks James Finch contributes to StockInterview.com and other publications. Visit http://www.stockinterview.com to download your free copy of "Investing in the Great Uranium Bull Market: A Practical Investor's Guide to Uranium Stocks." You can always write to James Finch at jfinch@stockinterview.com
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Hard Drive James Finch is a contributing editor for StockInterview.com and other publications.
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