Pretend, for a moment, that you have a gut feeling the market will
be falling. You think that oil, the hurricane, the economy,
whatever, is going to ultimately bring down the market.
Laptop Battery Should you get out of the market entirely?
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Thinkpad Making a decision to "get out of the market" and sell all your
stocks is an incredibly risky wager! You are essentially drawing a
line in the sand and deciding the market will never again go
higher. I say this is a risky bet because, historically, the market
goes up two thirds of the time and down one third of the time.
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Microsoft Which would be the better direction to go?
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Laptop Computers Well, Step One would be to determine if we are currently on
"offense" or "defense" in the market. Markets go up and down
whether or not there is an oil crisis, a war, or economic hard
times.
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Laptop Computer Knowing who has control of the football allows you to run the
proper plays in your portfolio. You wouldn't punt and give the ball
away on first down in football; likewise you would not want to sell
everything while on offense in the market either. When we are on
offense, we want to run plays (use strategies) that will help build
the value of our accounts.
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Desktop Computer Now, when the market is on defense, the play-calling changes. On
defense, we'll use strategies that will help us protect our
investment. We do this so we can be ready to play when we regain
control of the football.
Notebooks Step Two would be to examine which sectors are currently in
favor and where our investments stand in relation to this
analysis.
Lenovo These two steps are crucial to determining whether the odds (the
risk) are with you or against you. They must not be skipped!
Hard Drive Let's say the market is moving from offense to defense. What
would be the next step? Sell everything? As we said earlier, we
know the market goes up two thirds of the time and down one third
of the time. Selling everything implies a doomsday scenario and is
usually a bad idea.
Travelstar If you've completed the first two steps, go to step three.
Gateway Step Three, sell any stocks (or mutual funds) that have poor
relative strength. What is relative strength? How a stock (or fund)
performs compared to the overall market.
Laptop Parts Stocks are either on a relative strength BUY signal or a
relative strength SELL signal. Did you know that relative strength
signals (buy and sell) last, on average, for TWO YEARS? Meaning a
stock that gives a relative strength buy signal today will usually
outperform the overall market for (on average) two years. That's a
long time!
Software Next, Step Four. Examine the stocks or funds that have good
relative strength. Stocks (and mutual funds) with good relative
strength tend to snap back quickly when the market rebounds.
Hard Drives On the flipside, stocks with poor relative strength tend to fall
with the market (and many times will fall further than the overall
market).
Electronics Relative strength is a very important part of the decision
process we use at Mullooly Asset Management. Knowing the relative
strength of a stock or a fund will clue you in on its potential
performance during rough times.
Canon Let's take relative strength two steps farther. We now know we
can measure relative strength for an individual stock (or mutual
fund) versus the market. But did you also know that we can measure
a stock (or mutual fund's) relative strength against its peer group
too? That would help us decide if we should jump over to another
horse in the race.
Perhaps you have money in a stock that is in a favored sector; but
the stock you own has poor relative strength. You want to stay in
the sector. Moving within the sector to another stock in the group
with better relative strength is a smart way to go.
Desktop Pc We can also plot the relative strength of a sector compared to
the market as well. Knowing a sector's relative strength versus the
market is VERY important! Often times, when a sector turns up, it
can be like watching a school of fish move...they all move at once.
And today, you can instantly have money in that sector through
buying an exchange traded fund (ETF).
Desktop Computers Likewise, when a sector gives a relative strength sell signal
versus the market overall, the whole group usually moves again.
You'd want to reduce the amount of money in that sector as soon as
possible, and perhaps get out of the group entirely.
Think Pad About the Author:
Repair Thomas P. Mullooly, President of Mullooly Asset Management, LLC
(www.mullooly.net) has spent over twenty years in the investment
industry, as a broker and as an investment advisor. Mullooly Asset
Management is a fee-only registered investment advisory firm based
in New Jersey, specializing in retirement plan accounts,
particularly managing 401k, 403b, and deferred compensation
accounts for individuals. Feel free to contact us to check out the
relative strength of your portfolio by sending an email to
tom@mullooly.net or visiting http://www.mullooly.net/403b-plan.html
or sign up to receive the market report and tips on how you can
soundly invest your money at www.mullooly.net.
Data Recovery Thomas Mullooly, President of Mullooly Asset Management, works
one on one with individuals so they can regain control of their
investments. Tom's popular email alerts help folks to reduce the
risks in their portfolios. To learn how to stop making simple
investing mistakes and to sign up for Tom's email alerts, visit
http://www.advicefor401k.com, today!
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