PC Market To Remain Strong Through Year-End, According To IDC
Long Term Growth Outlook Is Stable At 9%
FRAMINGHAM, MA - SEPTEMBER 19, 2005 - The persistent strong demand in international markets that boosted second quarter growth in the worldwide PC market has also raised expectations for the second half of the year. According to the latest forecast from IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, total PC shipments in the second half of 2005 are now expected to reach nearly 110 million, with growth of 12.9% versus a May target of 107.2 million and growth of 10.4%. The biggest drivers in the second half are likely to be the consumer segments in Western Europe and Rest Of World (including Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa, Latin America, and Canada) with an important contribution from portable PCs. Consumer markets in other regions as well as the commercial segment will also contribute.
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"We continue to see remarkable growth in the consumer segment and in emerging markets," said Loren Loverde, director of IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. "Low prices combined with low penetration, recovering or growing economies, and general investment in technology continue to fuel rapid growth in these markets. While we expect the Euro to weaken against the dollar and PC growth rates to slow from recent quarters, we still anticipate strong growth for another couple quarters."
IDC remains optimistic in its forecast of the Chinese IT market, despite the announced policies designed to rein in its overheated economy. During IDC's annual Directions conference in April this year, IDC predicted that China's IT market would continue its robust growth in 2004 and well into 2008 at a compound annual growth rate of 15%, doubling from US$25 billion to US$50.8 billion in 2008. This will be driven by IT spending in the government, education, manufacturing and retail industries, which will experience higher than average growth rates.
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"The next generation of PC Postage products as seen from Stamps. based postage solutions, " said Raymond Boggs, based market research firm IDC, who has covered the Internet postage market since its inception. According to the U.S. Postal Service, approximately 302, 000 PC Postage licenses have been established in the U.S. in the 10 months since regulatory approval was granted. Approximately 75 percent of the licenses issued are for Stamps.com customers, with the balance distributed among the four competing products.
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With the strong second half of the year, total shipments for 2005 are expected to reach 204.6 million on growth of 14.1% - slightly below 15.3% growth in 2004, but up from a May projection of 11.4%. Total shipment value is expected to rise only 5.8% to $211.6 billion for all of 2005. For 2006-2008 shipments are expected to grow by roughly 9% before slowing to 8.3% in 2009. Growth of shipment value is also expected to slow, although it should remain positive throughout the forecast.
(AXcess News) Reno, Microsoft Corp. ( MSFT) said last week that its Vista Windows operating system for consumers would be delayed and not be ready for the holiday PC shipments, lending to PC makers seeing slower sales. But according to technology research firm, IDC, Vista's delay won't affect PC shipments. IDC estimates that computer shipments will reach 229.4 million in 2006, that's a 10.5% increase over the 207.6 million shipped in 2005. For 2007, IDC estimates shipments of 254 million computers, up 10.7 from its 2006 forecasts. IDC also forecastthat in 2008, computer shipments should rise a minimum of 10.5%.
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The main processing unit that controls the speed and the operation of a computer. ISA Bus (Industry Standard Architecture) bit bus for PC compatible computers that was first introduced in the IBM AT. ISDN (Integrated Services Digital Network) An international standard for telecommunications that allows for data, video, and voice transmission over the same phone lines.
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"The outlook for the U.S. market remains unchanged for 2005, despite a stronger-than-expected second quarter," said Bob O'Donnell, vice president Clients and Displays at IDC. "A combination of factors that include high crude oil prices, some component shortages, and limited decline in average prices will likely prevent the U.S. market from repeating its strong second quarter performance."
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Regional Outlook:
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-- United States - Although consumer spending recovered strongly in the second quarter, the downward trend in growth, rising oil prices with no real improvement on the employment front, consumer growth is expected to fall to mid-single digits by the end of the year along with the commercial segment. Although hurricane Katrina caused substantial damage and consumer confidence has fallen significantly, the impact to PC shipments is expected to be relatively short-term with growth remaining in mid to high single-digits throughout the forecast.
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-- Western Europe - While growth in Europe is expected to slow as the Euro weakens and the current replacement wave passes, IDC still expects solid growth through the end of the year. Channel inventory rose during the second quarter of 2005, however consumer demand - particularly for portables remains substantial. Overall growth is expected to remain above 15% through the end of the year before slowing in 2006.
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-- Japan - Building momentum in the consumer segment and a rise in business growth support an improving outlook in the Japanese market. While already high portable penetration means Japan is not benefiting from a shift to portables as much as other regions, the gains in the consumer segment have boosted the outlook for 2005 growth to high single digits, surpassing the U.S. for the first time since 2001.
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-- Asia/Pacific - Asia Pacific is also experiencing a surge in consumer and portable PC purchases, although the share of portables is smaller than in more mature regions. Consumer growth is expected to lead the market through the end of the year before falling behind the commercial segment. Unlike the Western Europe and Rest Of World markets, which have contributed significantly to global market strength in recent years but are expected to slow considerably beyond 2005, growth in Asia Pacific is expected to remain at roughly 12% from 2006 through the end of the forecast.
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IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker gathers PC market data in 55 countries by vendor, form factor, brand, processor brand and speed, sales channel and user segment. The research includes historical and forecast trend analysis as well as price band and installed base data.
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For more information, or to subscribe to the research, please contact Kathy Nagamine at 650-350-6423 or knagamine@idc.com.
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About IDC
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IDC is the premier global market intelligence and advisory firm in the information technology and telecommunications industries. We analyze and predict technology trends so that our clients can make strategic, fact-based decisions on IT purchases and business strategy. Over 700 IDC analysts in 50 countries provide local expertise and insights on technology markets. Business executives and IT managers have relied for 40 years on our advice to make decisions that contribute to the success of their organizations.
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IDC is a subsidiary of IDG, the world's leading technology media, research, and events company. Additional information can be found at www.idc.com
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