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Energy Crunch Has Been 10 Years In The Making

Laptop Battery Looming war in Iraq and a Venezuelan workers' strike have stolen the headlines in the build toward $40 oil, but it is a decade-long shrinkage of the U.S. energy industry that underlies the soaring price.

laptop computers is driving strong sales for notebook computers, according to the latest quarterly sales figures from the research firm IDC, which reported a 37% computer sales for the second quarter, compared with a year earlier. In the U.S., laptop sales grew 17.7%, while sales of desktop computers and servers fell 4%. The New York Times ( 10), CNET ( 10)

Thinkpad As energy companies bid to improve profit margins by cutting costs, oil and natural gas drillers are pumping less supply from the U.S. mainland, while unprofitable refiners have closed plants and drained storage tanks, analysts said.

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Microsoft The result: a U.S. energy supply system increasingly vulnerable to supply shocks, leaving fuel consumers at home and abroad more exposed to sudden price rises.

According to the indictment, Jones would steal various IBM and Penguin computer servers from Verisign's warehouse in Virginia and sell them to Johnson. Johnson would then sell the servers to several individuals, who would sometimes place them for sale on eBay. As a result of this scheme, the indictment alleges that Jones and Johnson caused Verisign to lose more than $120, 000 worth of computer equipment. In the indictment, Jones and Johnson are charged in three counts with causing the interstate transportation of stolen property, namely IBM 330 and 335 servers, in violation of 18 U.S.C.

Laptop Computers "The oil industry has been generally underinvested in last 20 years ... so what happens is if we get into a situation where we get a hiccup in the oil balance and you get these very leveraged affects on price," said Mike Rothman, analyst at Merrill Lynch bank.

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Laptop Computer The U.S. supply shortage has undercut the ability of the OPEC oil producer cartel -- itself now bumping up against production capacity limits -- to keep oil price increases under control. OPEC meets next week to decide policy in the event of war in Iraq.

Almost 10 years later, the trend of abandoning desktop computers in favor of laptops is creating a new era in computing security.

Desktop Computer U.S. oil companies keep on hand about 1 billion barrels of spare supply of crude oil and oil products like gasoline, worth tens of billions of dollars. But when oil prices drop, the cost to refiners can be overwhelming, as inventory on hand loses value.

Notebooks Plagued by poor profits for much of the 1990s, U.S. oil refiners increasingly used computer software to manage inventories more efficiently and whittle down the stock cushion they keep on hand. The shift gained pace in the Internet boom.

Lenovo "If refiners wanted to maintain share price in an environment of high tech stocks they're going to do everything to cut costs," said Sarah Emerson, director of Boston-based Energy Security Analysis Inc.

Hard Drive LOW STOCKS, HIGH PRICES

Travelstar From February 1993 to this year commercial crude inventories have fallen 18 percent and now stand at the lowest level since 1975, according to government figures. The lack of oil last week pushed crude prices to within a penny of hitting $40 for the first time in 12 years.

Gateway "Throughout the U.S. energy industry, assets and activity have been undervalued by markets," said Paul Horsnell of J.P. Morgan bank.

Laptop Parts This winter the slow inventory evaporation has been accelerated by an anti-government Venezuelan strike that has chopped oil exports of the world's former No. 5 supplier by one-third, or 1 million barrels per day.

Software U.S. crude stocks have dropped to the minimum 270 million-barrel level the government says is needed to keep supplies flowing smoothly -- just as the international oil system braces for war in Iraq, which ships around 4 percent of world crude exports.

Hard Drives The sheer size of the energy needs of the United States, which consumes a quarter of the world's oil and imports 60 percent of its fuel, means higher U.S. prices ripple through to Europe and Asia, even though supplies there are not nearly as tight.

Electronics "The United States has probably been the most active (nation) in terms of moving toward a lower average level of inventories for petroleum," said Dave Costello, an economist at the federal Energy Information Administration.

Canon WINTER WOES

Desktop Pc A long, cold winter has pulled U.S. heating oil stocks to their lowest levels in nearly three years. Gasoline stocks, which should soon be building for summer driving demand, are 11 percent lower than last year.

Desktop Computers Supplies have now fallen to dangerous levels, said Matthew Simmons, oil consultant with Simmons and Co. in Houston. "We got here over a decade, as a result it's going to take long time to figure out how we get out of this hole," Simmons said.

Think Pad Cost-conscious companies' reluctance to drill for new supplies also has helped press prices for natural gas -- a rival heating and industrial fuel -- to all-time highs for the second time in three winters.

Repair "This is not the sign of a market that is either working well or playing a constructive role in the U.S. economy," said J.P. Morgan's Horsnell.

Data Recovery By Timothy Gardner
Reuters - 3/5/2003

Topic: Energy

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