China's Plans to Rein in Its Overheated Economy Will Have Little Impact on the IT Industry, According to IDC
Singapore, 21 June, 2004 Chinas economy has seen rapid growth over the past ten years, reaching its peak in 2003 at 9.1%. However, recent signs of over-investment in some industries have led the Chinese government to announce a series of macro-economic policy changes aimed at regulating China's soaring economy. IDC maintains that these policy shifts may be able to contain the growth explosion in some industries, but their impact on IT spending in China will remain minimal.
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Ken Xie, General Manager and Chief Analyst in IDC China says, "The real estate sector and selected manufacturing industries such as steel, electro-lytic aluminium and concrete, will be most affected by these government regulations. However, as a whole, these industries account for only a small proportion of the total IT spending in China. A slow down in capital investments in these industries is therefore unlikely to cause a decline in IT infrastructure investments.
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As China continues to move towards a market-driven economy, which emphasizes profits and returns on investments, IT has been largely regarded as the catalyst that will help lead the economy forward. "China's flourishing private sector associates investments in IT with increases in productivity and international competitiveness, and this will help to drive investments in IT and increase overall IT spending. This is also in line with the governments objective of accelerating industrialization with information technology," added Mr. Xie.
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IDC remains optimistic in its forecast of the Chinese IT market, despite the announced policies designed to rein in its overheated economy. During IDC's annual Directions conference in April this year, IDC predicted that China's IT market would continue its robust growth in 2004 and well into 2008 at a compound annual growth rate of 15%, doubling from US$25 billion to US$50.8 billion in 2008. This will be driven by IT spending in the government, education, manufacturing and retail industries, which will experience higher than average growth rates.
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IDC's annual Directions conference is recognized as the industry's premier event that delivers an informative and actionable overview of the issues shaping the technology industry, and the resulting impact on the businesses of IT providers and users.
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In China, excessive investments in certain industries is not unprecedented, especially in light of China's economic growth and transformation. Similar occurrences have also been encountered in the last twenty years since China embarked on its economic reform policy. In addition to excess investments, Chinas economy also experienced other acute challenges, including inflated financial assets, unbalanced industrial development, and dislocation associated with the transformation of state-owned enterprise.
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Reflecting on China's impressive economic achievements over the past twenty years, IDC is confident that the Chinese authorities will successfully adjust its economic policies to keep the economy on the right track. "Government support is vital to the success of China. At IDC, we believe that the announced government initiatives to prevent overheating and keep inflation in check will ensure sustainable economic growth and healthy IT investments in China for the years to come," said Mr. Xie.
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Since the opening of the IDC China's office in 1992, IDC's research of the China market has grown both in depth and in breadth. From a country level overview, IDC now covers the hardware market both at the sub-regional and provincial level, as well as offers a wide portfolio of technology, research, and advisory services covering IT segments like telecommunications, software and services, peripherals and IT spending, as well as vertical industry research. The following are related IDC research that will track and report the latest in China's IT and telecom market:
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* China Internet Economy, 2003-2008
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* China IT Market Forecast and Analysis, 2004-2009
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* China PC Forecast and Analysis, 2004-2009
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* China System Forecast and Analysis, 2004-2009
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* China IT Services Forecast and Analysis, 2004-2009
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* China Packaged Software Forecast and Analysis, 2004-2009
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* China Telecom Service Forecast and Analysis, 2004-2009
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* China Network Equipment Forecast and Analysis, 2004-2009
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For more information about IDC's China research, please contact Yi-Feng Song at +86-10-8391-3610 ext 3602 or ysong@idc.com, or in the US, Travis Darrow at 1-650-962-6294, tdarrow@idc.com. For press inquiries, please contact Ee Laine Ng at +65-6228-7769 or elng@idc.com.
