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Investors Can't Compute Dell 1st-Qtr Outlook Following Results

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Thinkpad (AXcess News) Houston, TX - Tech investors can't compute Dell Inc. (Nasdaq: DELL) first-quarter outlook after the world's largest personal computer manufacturer reported Thursday that fourth-quarter profit rose 52 percent on sales of nearly $1 billion aided byimproved sales to businesses and international customers.

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Microsoft Dell's stock fell 5.7 percent, losing $1.81 in early morning trading before managing to regain some of its downturn to trade at $30.77, still off $1.22, or 3.8 percent, by 1:08pm EST Friday.

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Laptop Computers Dell reported sales in the fourth-quarter grew by 13 percent, compared to the same period a year earlier. But what investors couldn't, or wouldn't, compute was Dell's first-quarter outlook in which the personal computer manufacturer forecast growth to be 6 to 9 percent.

Almost 10 years later, the trend of abandoning desktop computers in favor of laptops is creating a new era in computing security.

Laptop Computer The news put out after the close of trading Thursday followed a more optimistic outlook from Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) that suggested that HP was gaining market share against its top rival, Dell.

Katz runs the company with 22 paid employees and 300 volunteers who give technical support to new users and are compensated with free memberships (remember those days at AOL ). He rents space in two AT&T data centers, one in Manhattan, another inSecaucus, N.J., with $700, 000 worth of computer equipment, end servers from Dell Computer and five IBM Unix servers. The $2 million annual payroll is his biggest expense.

Desktop Computer Dell said seasonal changes for a company its size was the reason for the lower revenue outlook, but investors weren't buying it. Dell chief executive Kevin Rollins called that a "typical post-holiday slowdown in the technology sector."

Notebooks Dell faces a tougher year ahead because of slower growth and falling prices for computers.Notebooks thatused to go for premium prices now sell for as low as $500, thanks to companies like Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) who sell volumeon thinmargin.

Lenovo Dell forecast first-quarter sales that would be $14.2 billion to $14.6 billion. Tech analysts were estimating Dell's first-quarter sales to be more like $14.73 billion, so the news was not taken lightly Friday.

Hard Drive Dell said it earned $1.01 billion, or 43 cents per share in the fourth-quarter, compared to $667 million, or 26 cents per share a year earlier. Analysts had expected 41 cents per share.

Travelstar Overall revenue rose to a record $15.18 billion in the fourth-quarter, topping Wall Street's $14.82 billion forecast. Sales outside the United States jumped 21 percent.

Gateway Dell has diversified into printers, servers, storage equipment and consumer products in recent years with good results, but three-fifths of its business remains PCs and laptops.

Laptop Parts But even though Dell has diversified, Wall Street watches its computer sales most.

Dell said it is forecasting 39 to 41 cents per share in first-quarter earnings, excluding a 3 cent charge for stock compensation. Analysts were expecting 42 cents, but the company has under estimated results twice last year so many tech analysts are optimistic that Dell will produce better results in the first-quarter.

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