There are many EXCUSES why the bond market may be selling off. But
the real reason we are seeing prices fall is because:
Laptop Battery there are simply more sellers than buyers!
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Thinkpad That is an economic law that everyone on the planet seems to
know, but yet the "experts" on Wall Street always seem to scoff at
an answer that seems to be too straightforward and simple.
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Microsoft Remember, it does not matter why the price of something is
falling. It is better to know WHAT is rising and WHAT is falling,
rather than the reasons why something happens.
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Laptop Computers If we know WHAT is rising or falling, we can take action to
avoid the areas where prices are falling. And maybe improve our
chances of making money if we move into areas where prices are
going up, right?
With the laptop market growth or the optical media revolution, many computers do not incorporate floppy disk drive anymore.
Laptop Computer We also noted that the bond market does not have the "safety
valves" in place to help stem any massive sell-off in the market
either. Don't forget:
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Desktop Computer The moves in the bond market are significantly sharper and
more violent than moves we see in the stock market.
Notebooks If you are a bondholder during a downturn, reading your monthly
statements could be hazardous to your health! It can be a painful
experience if you do not know what to expect, or are working with
someone inexperienced or if you really need the money before
maturity.
Lenovo Now, many in the market are aware that electric and gas utility
stocks often get clobbered when rates rise. These stocks often will
offer a dividend similar to current bond yields. So when yields
rise, the dividend yields of these stocks cannot move up fast
enough to keep up with rising rates, and so the selling wave
begins.
Hard Drive Also, bonds often see their prices get crushed when there is
talk of inflation in the economic system. We've seen more headlines
about gold, oil and other commodities moving smartly higher
recently, so our "perfect bond market storm" continues to
develop.
Travelstar So what other areas can be affected when bond prices drop?
Certainly the share prices of the stock brokers and
mutual
fund investment companies can fall, as a great deal of
their profits come from trading bonds. Don't forget that many
insurance companies will keep an extremely large amount of money
invested in bonds for their own accounts. They could be affected if
bond prices fall.
Gateway Any businesses that are dependent on interest rates in any way
will often be affected by bond slumps. How will companies in the
lending business, or in the mortgage business, hold up if rates
continue to move significantly higher? How will the loans made by
the banks perform if rates rise? What impact would that have on
bank stocks?
Laptop Parts Something
else (and something important)
that you may not realize: the largest sector of the Standard
& Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500) is the
financial sector. If that area
of the market starts to falter, we could see an enormous
spillover into the stock market!
Software Thomas Mullooly, President of Mullooly Asset Management, works
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