By Kalena Jordan 21 January 2003
Laptop Battery Those of you who are long time subscribers to our newsletter The
Search Light will remember my article from way back in December
2001 titled Search Engine Predictions for 2002.
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Thinkpad It's time to take a look at that article and the grand
predictions I made for the search industry to determine whether I'm
a "Nostradamus" or a "NoSuchLuckus".
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Microsoft Here were my personal predictions for 2002:
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Laptop Computers 1. Increase in Pay For Performance (PFP)
Options
Compared with this time last year, the world airlines have scheduled nine per cent more January flights to, year growth rate of just two per cent.
Laptop Computer My first prediction for the year 2002 related to pay for
performance options: "I see this trend increasing, with the major
engines and directories expanding on the range of PFP options they
provide, whether in-house or outsourced".
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Desktop Computer Looks like I was right on the money with this one. By the end of
2002, all but one of the major search engines and directories had a
pay for performance option available. Paid inclusion services in
particular proved to be a popular addition to search engines in
2002, with Lycos, FAST / AllTheWeb and Ask Jeeves / Teoma each
introducing a paid inclusion product for the first time. Pay per
click services also gained in popularity in 2002, with Google
introducing their AdWords Select Pay Per Click product in February
2002 (that recently!) and Overture spreading their market reach via
major partnerships with AOL Europe in January, MSN in February and
September, InfoSeek in March, Yahoo in April, CNET and AltaVista in
May, Lycos Europe in June, Yahoo Japan in November, CNN and
Freeserve in December.
Notebooks The popularity of Google's AdWords grew quickly throughout the
year, with AdWords becoming a major competitor to Overture, helped
along by new partnerships with Earthlink in February, AOL in May,
Ask Jeeves / Teoma and AT&T in July, InfoSpace in September and
Yahoo Japan in November. In fact, AdWords became such a threat to
Overture that they filed a patent infringement lawsuit against
Google in April 2002. I believe the outcome is still pending on
that one. Smaller PPC engines began to gain more market share in
2002, with eSpotting, FindWhat, Kanoodle and Ah-Ha each finding a
market niche.
Lenovo And who could forget LookSmart's disastrous entry to the realm
of pay per click in April 2002? The deceptive
nature of LookSmart's announcement
and their decision to force existing Express Directory Submission
customers to rollover into the new PPC system instead of
"grandfathering" their listings demonstrated a complete lack of
market understanding and for some, forever etched the LookSmart
brand with the word "untrustworthy". It seems LookSmart are still
paying for their mistake months later, with a reduced market share
and a devastated reputation.
Hard Drive As predicted, search engine optimizers have had to embrace this
trend towards Pay for Performance and integrate it within their
traditional site optimization services in order to offer clients
balanced, measurable and successful search engine marketing
campaigns. As a result, the term SEO has become increasingly eroded
by the more logical term SEM (Search Engine Marketer).
Travelstar Score: Nostradamus
Gateway 2. Increase in Paid Submissions
Laptop Parts My original article predicted: "I believe we'll see other
engines and directories introduce
a fee for submission to their commercial categories. I think
Google could be the first
of these".
Software While the fairly new JoeAnt and GoGuides directories both
introduced paid submission services late in 2002, they don't really
counteract the fact that LookSmart dropped their directory
submission option in favor of PPC and (thankfully), Google have
refrained from introducing a Paid Submission service. So much for
THAT prediction!
Hard Drives Score: NoSuchLuckus
Electronics >> 3. Crackdown on Spammers
Canon My prediction here was: "With engines like Google leading the
way in the crackdown on search engine spammers, other engines
should follow suit in 2002. As a result, there should be far less
spammers and more relevant results across the search engines by
this time next year."
Desktop Pc Other search engines have indeed followed Google's lead against
spam in 2002, by introducing more sophisticated search algorithms,
(such as AltaVista's revamped algorithm consisting of 100+ ranking
determining factors), by incorporating more spam filtration methods
(such as those capable of detecting invisible text and hidden
links), by providing spam reporting facilities and by boosting site
relevancy factors such as link popularity when measuring sites
against search queries.
Desktop Computers Google still leads the War Against Spam, with their dreaded
PageRank site penalty scheme and their crystal clear anti-spam
stance publicized via their Webmaster Guidelines. The result has
been a victory for searchers - more relevant searches, less bacon
and ham. Even those search engines and directories renowned for
providing irrelevant results recognized what Google had known for
years: the need to keep searchers satisfied. Yahoo in particular
got back to basics by the end of 2002, partnering with Google to
combine Google search results with their own directory listings
instead of serving them up separately.
Think Pad Score: Nostradamus
Repair 4. Growth of the SEO Industry
Data Recovery Back then I said: "With the importance of search engines finally
sinking in, the need for quality SEO services is booming in the
U.S. and the U.K. I predict this solid demand will continue in
2002, especially in newly developing markets such as Australia/New
Zealand and Europe".
Cisco No longer a niche market, SEO/SEM has indeed become mainstream
over the past 12 months and is now recognized as a vital part of
the marketing mix in both the U.S. and the U.K. Thankfully, search
engine marketing has also become increasingly in demand in
European, Asian and Australasian markets with scores of new
specialist SEM firms springing up regularly and more media coverage
than ever before.
Keyboard Score: Nostradamus
Monitor 5. Death of Two Majors
Desktop My prediction here read: "I think 2002 will signal the demise
for at least two of the major search engines and directories".
Infosys In 2002 we said goodbye to industry veterans Excite and Northern
Light. Excite ceased to be a major player in January 2002, when new
owners InfoSpace replaced Excite's search database listings with a
mixture of Overture paid results and Inktomi search results. Excite
UK shut their doors around the same time. These days the Excite
portal still exists, but nobody searches there anymore. Perhaps
it's because Excite now uses a mixture of regular and PPC listings
from Google, LookSmart, Inktomi, Ask Jeeves, About, Overture,
FindWhat and FAST, with no disclaimers to help searchers identify
which are paid results.
Refurbished Laptops In January 2002, Northern Light closed its public search
service. A week later, Divine, inc., a provider of content
management and delivery solutions for enterprise customers, bought
the search site. In a separate deal at the same time, Yahoo
partnered with Divine to make Northern Light's Special Collection
documents available in a new service called Yahoo Premium Documents
Search.
Wipro Technically we could say that HotBot also "died" in 2002, given
it lost its own search database and became a META search engine in
December to display search results from search FAST, Google,
Inktomi and Teoma under the ownership of Terra Lycos.
Lap Top Score: Nostradamus
Refurbished 6. One or More Major Partnerships
Memory My prediction was: "I see some major rivals combining in 2002,
just to stay alive. I also see some more major partnerships between
online and offline firms".
Intel The Yahoo deal with Google in October 2002 to provide combined
search listings and Yahoo's purchase announcement of Inktomi in
December 2002 spring to mind here. So do the many partnerships
between Google and search rivals Ask Jeeves / Teoma, AOL and
InfoSpace for the provision of AdWords paid listings (as listed in
1. above) in 2002 and the expansion of Overture via partnerships
with various search engines, directories and portals worldwide.
As400 Let's not forget the Lycos / FAST deal for paid inclusion
services either. Yahoo's 2002 move into the ISP market and Ask
Jeeves' provision of an offline "butler service" are relevant to
the latter half of this prediction.
Averatec Score: Nostradamus
Hardware 7. Move away from In-House to Outsourced
Services
Dual Xeon My original article predicted: "As search engine optimization
becomes even more complex and time consuming in 2002, more
businesses will realize SEO is a full-time job and not something
their marketing or IT staff can do 'on the side'."
Storage A year ago, if you had gone to a major employment site such as
careerbuilder.com or monster.com and conducted a search for "search
engine optimization", you would have been hard-pressed to find many
jobs in this field. Do a search today and you'd be amazed at the
increase in demand for SEO specialists - just as predicted.
Seagate Score: Nostradamus
Computer Sales 8. SEO industry Shake-Up
Computer Hardware My prediction was: "With consumer watchdogs keeping a close eye,
developing industry standards and ethics, as well as the crackdown
on spammers
sure to continue, the SEO
industry is
sure to experience a major
shake-up next year, with only the most successful and ethical
SEO's left still standing."
Printers You could say that 2002 gave rise to the ethical SEO. A line in
the sand was drawn between so-called "ethical" search engine
optimizers and marketers (SEM's) and "unethical" search engine
optimization firms, nicknamed "Search engine deceivers" (SED's) by
some. A number of long-time SED's found themselves permanently
banned for search engine spamming by Google in 2002, to the sheer
delight of many in the industry. As more search engines introduced
or tightened their anti-spam filters in 2002, many shady SEO
cowboys were forced to pack up shop as they realized their spam
techniques were no longer effective.
Technology Google's unprecedented decision to publish their definition of
"ethical" search engine optimization on their Webmaster Guidelines
page forced many search engine marketing firms to rethink their SEO
techniques. It was also the start of what many believe is a new era
in the industry, where search engines and professional SEO's start
to communicate openly, creating an information exchange for the
possible development of an industry-wide set of acceptable search
engine optimization standards.
Mainframe Score: Nostradamus
Samsung 9. New Technologies
Computer Repair My final prediction read: "I'm sure there will be some
significant technological developments in 2002 that will impact the
search engine industry and make us all head for the forums and chat
rooms in a panic."
Used Computers Sure enough, developments such as Google News, Gator, LookSmart
LookListings, the SEO Consultants Directory, Overture's
Auto-Bidding Tool, Froogle, Wireless Search, TopText, Link Loader,
MPZ Format, the Chinese
Government's ban on Google and
Search King's PR Ad Network resulted in some frantic forum
activity in 2002.
Network But none of these compare to the storm in a teacup caused by a
little green bar. Yep, Google Page RankT gets my vote for the most
talked about technology in search for 2002.
Digital Cameras Score: Nostradamus
Desktops So with a final score of eight out of nine, it looks like I'm
ninety percent Nostradamus after all (-: .
Cognos Article by Kalena Jordan, one of the first search engine
optimization experts in Australia and New Zealand, who is well
known and respected in the industry, particularly in the U.S. As
well as running her own SEO business
Web Rank,
Kalena manages Search Engine College , an online training
institution offering instructor-led short courses and downloadable
self-study courses in Search Engine Optimization and Search Engine
Marketing subjects.
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